The course "Modern Methods of Analysis and Forecasting in International Business" aims to introduce students to the basic concepts, classification and major methods of analysis and forecasting used in international business. The course will allow students to develop competencies in the field of time series analysis, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, risk assessment models, simulation modeling, factor analysis. Special focus will be given to financial economic models and competitiveness assessment models used for developing and implementing operational and strategic plans in business and government. The course is distinguished by presenting the mathematical component of the methods under consideration with an emphasis on their economic content and practical application for international business problem-solving. On completion of the course students will form a holistic view of modern methods of analysis and forecasting, their applicability for increasing the international company competitiveness and effective management decision-making.
Learning Objectives
The aim of the course is to form a holistic view of modern methods of analysis and forecasting in international business, their applicability for increasing the international company competitiveness and effective management decision-making. To achieve this goal, the main areas of corporate financial reporting, basic tools of financial-economic analysis are considered, special attention is paid to the mathematical foundations and applied aspects of econometric methods of analysis and forecasting, models for assessing and forecasting competitiveness.
Expected Learning Outcomes
Uses the principles of the systems-based approach to analyze the scope of factors determining the effectiveness of management decisions
Develops and analyzes the main forms of corporate financial reporting and performance indicators of investment projects
Solves the mathematical statistics problems and interprets the results from the international business perspective
Solves differential equations and systems of differential equations and interprets the results from the international business perspective
Solves linear and non-linear optimization problems and interprets the results from the international business perspective
Justifies the possibilities of using different methods of modeling and forecasting in the management decisions practice and interprets the results from the international business perspective
Makes regression and autoregression models and interprets results from the international business perspective
Evaluates and analyzes the efficiency of the operating activities of an international company, the ratio of planned and actual financial-economic indicators, the impact on operating activities of ongoing investment projects and the reliability of the forecast indicators used. Substantiates the position of functional units in the context of a joint discussion of the final operating activities performance indicators in an international company
Course Contents
Management decisions. System-based approach. General conditions of balancedness. Modeling and forecasting.
Fundamentals of financial-economic analysis
Fundamentals of mathematical statistics
Systems of differential equations
Optimization methods
Modern modeling methods
Business game. Development of a business project and assessment of its impact on the operational efficiency of an international company
Assessment Elements
Homework preparation and presentation
Homework preparation and presentation
Defense of the homework and materials of the final business game based on the theory of the course
Defenсe of the homework and materials of the final business game based on the theoretical parts of the course
Preparation and presentation of materials for the final business game
Preparation and presentation of materials for the final business game
Class attendance and activity in class
Class attendance and activity in class
Test
Тест
Interim Assessment
2024/2025 2nd module
0.2 * Class attendance and activity in class + 0.25 * Defense of the homework and materials of the final business game based on the theory of the course + 0.2 * Homework preparation and presentation + 0.2 * Preparation and presentation of materials for the final business game + 0.15 * Test
Bibliography
Recommended Core Bibliography
A first course in optimization theory, Sundaram, R. K., 2011
Cope, A. T., & Robinson, T. R. (2015). International Financial Statement Analysis (Vol. Third edition). Hoboken, New Jersey: Wiley. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=946119
Dynamic optimization : the calculus of variations and optimal control in economics and management, Kamien, M. I., 2012
Griffin, R. W., Pustay, M. W. (2019). International Business: a Managerial Perspective. Global Edition, Pearson Education Limited.
Теория автоматического управления. Линейные системы : учеб. пособие для вузов, Мирошник, И. В., 2005
Теория автоматического управления. Т.1: Линейные системы, Ким, Д. П., 2007
Теория вероятностей и математическая статистика : учебник для вузов, Кремер, Н. Ш., 2006
Теория управления. Теория линейных систем автоматического управления. : учеб. пособие, Туманов, М. П., 2005
Recommended Additional Bibliography
Advanced macroeconomics, Romer, D., 2012
International business, Peng, M., 2019
Mathematics for economists, Simon, C. P., [2010]
Математическая статистика : учеб. пособие для вузов, Ивченко, Г. И., 1992
Оптимальные системы управления. Аналитическое конструирование : учеб. пособие, Афанасьев, В. Н., 2007
Теория систем и системный анализ : учебник для вузов, Волкова, В. Н., 2010
Эконометрика. Начальный курс : учебник для вузов, Магнус, Я. Р., 2007
Instructors
Аустер Иван Александрович
Ванина Светлана Сергеевна
Galkina, Anastasia N.
Podchufarov, Andrey
Sayapin, Artem
Шилов Максим Анатольевич
Course Syllabus
Abstract
Learning Objectives
Expected Learning Outcomes
Course Contents
Assessment Elements
Interim Assessment
Bibliography
Recommended Core Bibliography
Recommended Additional Bibliography
Authors