Amid the transformation of world order, domestic political polarisation within the countries and organisations of the collective West (the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the EU) is becoming a key factor that turns the foreign policy agenda into a ‘hostage’ to internal inter-party and ideological conflicts. This project aims to systematically assess how internal divisions among Western elites and societies influence their international activities, the volatility of their foreign policy, and their attitudes toward alternative centres of power—Russia and China. The scientific novelty of this research lies in its interdisciplinary approach, which combines methods of causal modelling, network analysis of UN voting patterns, and unique expert surveys conducted in the BRICS countries.

The goal of the project is to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the impact of domestic political polarisation (party-political, socio-economic, value- and ideology-based, as well as fundamental ethnic, racial, and demographic shifts) on the foreign policies of the states and alliances of the collective West and on world order in the medium term (5–10 years) and the long term (10–15 years), in the context of challenges and opportunities for Russia and China.