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The forecast covers the period up to 2035. It describes dynamic trends that will shape the future of the world during the nearest 20 years. The aim of this study is to foresee the challenges awaiting the world and the forthcoming opportunities which can be used in the interests of the Russian state, ensuring its role as an active participant in the formation of the future world order. The book presents a general analysis of the main trends of world development, its spiritual culture, ideology, politics, innovation, economy, social sphere and interna tional security, the problems of globalization and regionalism. The final section of the book presents strategic recommendations for Russia. Prospective readers of this book include staff members of government institutions and management bodies, research, expert and business communities. It also may be recommended for student scholars of international affairs.
While it is widely admitted that Afghanistan can contribute to connectivity in Eurasia, one may not also deny that Afghanistan’s regional role is dependent on regional conditions. This article takes Afghanistan’s security and geostrategic trends in Eurasia as the two major variables, defining conditions for Afghanistan’s regional role. They are reviewed and then synthesized as dependent and independent variable to form taxonomy of possible regional roles for Afghanistan.
Since around 2017-2018, the world has been living through a period of progressive erosion, or collapse, of international orders inherited from the past. With the election of Donald Trump and the rapid increase of US containment of Russia and China—which is both a consequence of this gradual erosion and also represents deep internal and international contradictions—this process entered its apogee. A period of collapse opens up possibilities for the creation of a new world order; hopefully, a fairer, stable, and peaceful order than has been previously experienced. Russia has a good chance of influencing the formation a new order.
The present article examines a recent advisory opinion handed down by the Eurasian Economic Union Court. In the remarkably bold decision, the Court continued to push for the construction of a veritable EAEU internal market. It managed, within one advisory opinion, to further the coherence of its internal market law reasoning, expand on the principles of direct effect and primacy as well as the horizontal effect of fundamental freedoms in EAEU law, provide important definitions in EAEU law, strengthen the authority of the Commission and its decisions and emphasize the duty of loyal cooperation of Member States for the full effectiveness and successful implementation of EAEU law. As only criticism, one may deplore the EAEU Court’s lack of effort to start building a coherent jurisprudence by means of referring to its own case law.
The article analyzes post-Soviet economic policy in the light of the previous periods of the Russian economic history. The authors find a striking similarity between the measures proposed by modern Russian economic liberals – as well as their consequences – and the actions taken by the Russian authorities during much earlier periods. They explain these similarities with the fact that “Western” terms can mean something very different in the context of a non-Western culture, phenomena and institutions with the same names in different types of societies can differ fundamentally and perform different functions. Furthermore, “Westernization” can be a purely superficial process intended more for show than for substance. By applying the methodology of substantivism which stresses the fundamental differences between economies based on gifts (reciprocity), redistribution, and exchange (market), they argue that Russia’s economy differs significantly from that of the countries of Western Europe and, in the typological sense, is closer to such European countries as Bulgaria, Albania, Romania, and Serbia. For this reason, similar measures of economic policy applied in Western Europe and Russia bring different results.
Abstract: Civil and political activism is not a monolithic, “one-size-fits-all”
phenomenon. It is rather viewed as nationally unique, segmented political
attempts to engage different groups of citizens into a civil movement. The
paper explores the specifics and effectiveness of some types of Russian civil
and political activism—female, youth, unofficial, religious. Based on a political
marketing communications framework, the author argues that paradoxical
specifics of civil and political activism in Russia tend to avoid political slogans,
demands as well as content, adhering to the principle of neutrality which is the
main idea fn the contemporary Russian domestic policy. Despite the pronounced
demand for activism and changes, people are unready to fight and
revolt. Russians are not under a universal crisis of values and goals, which
usually spurs negative political activism. Various analytical surveys, reports and
official documents compiled by Russian official agencies and think-tanks in
2010–2018, support the author’s arguments.
Subjects: International Politics; International Relations; Political Behavior and
In the drama of 2014 – political crisis in Ukraine, Russia’s annexation of Crimea, armed conflict in eastern Ukraine – Russia–EU relations turned almost overnight into confrontation and near conflict. As Yury Borko has observed, five basic factors define that confrontation today: 1) mutual diplomatic and economic sanctions and counter-sanctions; 2) a ‘freeze’ in official relations and mechanisms for cooperation under existing treaties and agreements, as well as in the working relationship between the two sides; 3) a ‘freeze’ in both official and unofficial talks on preparing a new foundational Russia–EU agreement to replace the outdated Partnership and Cooperation Agreement of 1994 that expired in 2007, and that both parties have renewed annually since; 4) chronic military tensions and confrontational rhetoric – including accusations that, among other things, Russia supports extremist, right-wing, populist and anti-European forces within the EU, and that its intelligence agencies attempted to assassinate Sergei Skripal in the UK – accompanied by actions such as military exercises and flyovers by military aircraft; and 5) the resultant, near-complete breakdown in mutual trust. Russia–EU relations are now at their lowest point in history, having been in deep crisis for five years.
This book is based on the collection of articles centered around Russia and its policies. The articles are grouped under three parts. The first part contains articles on international relations, Russian foreign policy, and the situation in the world. The main themes they cover include Russian policy in Asia and the Eurasian integration — in which Moscow plays the most active role.
The second part looks at the theorization of Russia’s internal processes, issues concerning reforms to the communist system, its troubled transition from Communism, and analysis of the country’s current political regime. While elaborating on various reforms and transition from the communist system, the author has suggested certain alternatives concepts. Many of the articles analyze the shortcomings and inconsistencies of the modern Russian political system.
The third part is devoted to current issues in Russian politics, the democratization process, growing authoritarian tendencies, mass protests, and that evaluate the programs and policies of individual leaders. The book will be of interest to those specializing in Russian foreign and domestic policy as well as to all those interested in following the developments of this country, its role in the world, and the global situation in general.
The author argues that Russian–Chinese rapprochement is a fundamental feature of the current changing system of international relations. Apart from its own significance, it has become important because it stimulated and, in some cases, laid the foundation for many broader international processes: the creation of the multipolar world, the emergence of such international groups and organisations as BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), the coordination between Eurasian Economic Union and the Chinese initiative of Silk Road Economic Belt and others. Recently, all these processes led to the idea of Greater Eurasia or Eurasian partnership.
The article introduces a special issue on studying EU-Russian relations. It overviews Russian- and English-language academic research to identify whether there is sufficient dialogue on issues studied, theories applied and categories used for a transnational epistemic community to emerge. This latter would allow the academic world to better contribute to the resolution of the present crisis in EU-Russian relations. Although an overlap is identified in issues, theories and categories the article exposes multiple differences in how they are approached in English- and Russian-language academic writings. These findings challenge the existence of a transnational epistemic community in EU-Russian relations. The article concludes by discussing steps to make for this community to develop, and introduces contributions to the special issue.
As the digitalization becomes the key factor to raise the competitiveness of companies, as well as of the investment attractiveness of recipient countries, the Socialist Republic of Vietnam (SRV) may find it difficult to benefit from this process. The research question is why Vietnam, in spite of successful efforts to increase its investment attractiveness, may miss opportunities presented by the emerging digital business environment. The academic novelty of the paper account for the reveal of the repercussions generated by the global trend towards the digitalization of businesses for Vietnam. The approach to the research question is based upon general academic methods like observation, study of documents and comparison. The primary sources of the paper, a significant part of which is published in the Vietnamese language, include the statistics of Ministry of Finance of Vietnam, Ministry of planning and investment of Vietnam, interviews with the SRV’s government officials, as well as the UNCTAD and the World Bank reports. The principal findings of the study reveal that while Vietnam has succeeded in strengthening its attractiveness as an investment destination, the country still possesses insufficient resources to respond to the forthcoming global digitalization of businesses and incentivize companies to continue investing in the SRV. In this connection, a set of recommendations on how to rectify maters is presented by the authors.
The Trump administration’s confrontational approach has prompted a serious debate in China about the country’s economic and political course.
In recent years, the rise of serious military, political, economic and political contradictions between the United States of America and the People's Republic of China became a reality. In American political circles they started talking about a new "Cold" (and even possibly "Hot") War between the two countries. The growth of Chinese military power and economic potential cause an alarm in American ruling circles. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army challenged the US absolute military preponderance in the Western part of the Pacific Ocean. The Chinese military can use against the Americans the tactics of Anti-Access/Area Denial, thus changing radically the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific Region. Mainland China now is the strongest economy in the world, undermining thus the US global economic positions. The American political and academic elite is also concerned about the possibility of forming a Russian-Chinese anti-American Alliance. In the US, however, there is no unity as to who America's main enemy in the new cold war is - Russia or China. In any foreseeable future, America will have to confront such strong opponents as Russia and China, under the conditions of disorder and discontent in the United States.
The formation of ‘Greater Eurasia’ is undoubtedly one of the most important narratives of the international relations development in the first half of the 21st century. However, there is no consensus in the scientific and expert сommunity regarding its meaning. The best way to define Greater Eurasia seems to consider it a regional or macroregional international community constructed through interaction. It is based not on history or civilizational proximity or even on the number of economic projects and interdependence, but on the special quality and intensity of political relations between its constituent states, first of all between Russia and China. The formation of this сommunity fully fits into the main modern trends in international relations: increasing uncertainty and disorder at the global level, the formation of flexible coalitions, political regionalization and re-sovereignization along with the growth of global interdependence. In this regard, the most efficient scholarly tools for understanding ‘Greater Eurasia’
are offered by constructivism and the English school of international relations, especially the scientific heritage of H. Bull.
The book comprehensively examines the current Russian turn to the East, opening up for the country, primarily for its eastern part, new development prospects. The published articles attempted an interdisciplinary review of these new trends. Its authors – geographers, economists – analyze the necessary measures that should be taken to effectively integrate the country into the Asian division of labor, to overcome its pronounced European eccentricity. The articles of the collection also speak about the space of opportunities in which these tasks will be solved. The book is addressed to a wide range of specialists, it will be of interest to anyone who wants to participate in one form or another in solving one of the main challenges facing the country in the 21st century.
The rise of China as well as its unprecedented economic success turned to be one of the most
important factors in the world development in the late XX and early XXI centuries and transformed the
country into the second most influential player on the international scene. This change caused a heated
debate within the country about the prospects of Beijing’s foreign policy and economic course, with two
major directions emerging as a result. The first group calls for a more active behaviour of China as a great
power on the international arena, taking the example of the United States. It strives to achieve this goal
through all available means, including military ones, to ensure China’s economic and political interests
abroad, to put forward its own alternative to Western concepts of world development, and to create
alternative trade and economic unions and zones. As a result, supporters of this line seek to move away
from Deng Xiaoping’s foreign policy of modesty and restraint. The second group of realists believes that it
is necessary to follow Deng’s principles, since the country is yet to secure the status of a major world power
and can lose its current advantages, which come with a more modest status. They suggest that following
the first path will provoke an unfavorable reaction of the international community. Chinese leadership
has taken an intermediate position in this debate, holding back the most radical proposals of the activists
and adopting some of the moderate ones. The debate, which has been vigorous since the beginning of the
XXI century became particularly acute after the start of the trade war initiated by U.S. President Donald
Trump. It revealed many of China’s weaknesses as well as its significant dependence on the United States.
During the exacerbation, a number of experts criticised certain aspects of domestic and foreign policy of
China’s current leadership, including the “belt and road initiative” initiative. Some claim that this initiative,
along with a number of other major projects adopted by the Chinese government, for instance, the “Made
in China 2025” plan, could have provoked Trump’s tough response, which may put China’s development
at stake. Some major Beijing’s partners are also criticising certain forms of realisation of this initiative. The
article examines the available sources shedding light on the public and non-public side of the debate, as well
as its possible implications for China’s foreign and domestic policy and Sino-Russian relations.