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Research seminar by Jonas Dreiger

On November 21, the next research seminar took place at the International Laboratory on World Order Studies and the New Regionalism. This time, a visiting scholar, specialist in the security and defence policies of Russia, Germany, NATO, and the EU, as well as in deterrence and the conflict theories in international relations, Jonas Dreiger, spoke.

He presented his research entitled “Can Russia afford another nuclear arms race?”. The main research question is what kinds of technological, economic, and political commitments and investments would Russia have to undertake if such a race does unfold with renewed vigour. The study assesses Russia's ability to maintain strategic parity with other nuclear powers under various scenarios: from a hypothetical sharp increase in nuclear arsenals (extreme scenario) to the preservation and extrapolation of the current situation (moderate scenario). The assessment methodology is based on three main factors: material resources, technological potential and socio-political stability. Moreover, the status of relations between states today, according to the researcher, is already quite close to the moderate scenario of an arms race. According to the results of the assessment, Russia's maximum capabilities are limited to a moderate arms race, which will cause serious domestic political problems.