Open Seminar “Challenges to Strategic Stability in South Asia”
The seminar was also attended by Dr. Olga Kharina, Dr. Nivedita Kapoor and Andrei Dobritsyn who moderated a seminar.
Akash Shah highlighted that the lexicon that we borrow today regarding the strategic stability dates back to the time of Cold War, when there was a serious strategic competition between the United States and the Soviet Union. When it comes to India and Pakistan the situation is not the same because there are so many externalities involved, especially in the context of China, which is considered by India as a strategic rival. That is why the involvement of China rises the geopolitical stakes, making the United States participate more actively in the regulation of Indo-Pacific issues to deter China’s ambitions.
The strategic stability in South Asia should be viewed firstly from the side of missile programs. For Pakistan great strategic concerns come today because of the India’s acquisition of Russian BrahMos medium-range ramjet supersonic cruise missile, carrying not only conventional warheads but also the nuclear ones. 2022 India–Pakistan missile incident when India’s BrahMos missile crashed in Punjab only boosted strategic disturbance. The missile incident along with India’s successful tests of the MIRV technology in March 2024 proved the lack of the strategic restraint regime between both states.
After the implementation of MIRV technology India have started to increase gradually its nuclear arsenal, as the number of warheads on each missile is going to increase from 70 to 300, presenting a bigger threat for Pakistan’s national security. Moreover, the nuclear build-up would invalidate India’s “No first use” principle, especially if any conflicts arise, undermining its credible minimum deterrence strategy. Despite India’s position that its nuclear build-up is being fostered by the growing strategic threat from China, it doesn’t mean that India won’t use its new missile capabilities against Pakistan. That’s why India’s active development of nuclear missiles makes Pakistan its own nuclear arsenal, thus creating unresolved nuclear dilemma. The seminar ended with a question and answer session.
You can watch the seminar using a link
This event is an output of a research project “South Asia and the Challenges of Global Politics”, implemented as part of the HSE University Project Group Competition at the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs.