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Sergey A. Karaganov
Deputy Dean (Academic Progress in Undergraduate and Master's Programmes)
Igor G. Kovalev
Deputy Dean (Finance and Administration)
Denis Anatolyevich Medvedev
Deputy Dean (Teaching and Learning and Postgraduate Programmes)
Deputy Dean for Admissions and Alumni Relations
The forecast covers the period up to 2035. It describes dynamic trends that will shape the future of the world during the nearest 20 years. The aim of this study is to foresee the challenges awaiting the world and the forthcoming opportunities which can be used in the interests of the Russian state, ensuring its role as an active participant in the formation of the future world order. The book presents a general analysis of the main trends of world development, its spiritual culture, ideology, politics, innovation, economy, social sphere and interna tional security, the problems of globalization and regionalism. The final section of the book presents strategic recommendations for Russia. Prospective readers of this book include staff members of government institutions and management bodies, research, expert and business communities. It also may be recommended for student scholars of international affairs.
While it is widely admitted that Afghanistan can contribute to connectivity in Eurasia, one may not also deny that Afghanistan’s regional role is dependent on regional conditions. This article takes Afghanistan’s security and geostrategic trends in Eurasia as the two major variables, defining conditions for Afghanistan’s regional role. They are reviewed and then synthesized as dependent and independent variable to form taxonomy of possible regional roles for Afghanistan.
My book examines the function and development of the cult of saints in Coptic Egypt. For this purpose I focus primarily on the material provided by the texts forming the Coptic hagiographical tradition of the early Christian martyr Philotheus of Antioch, and more specifically – the Martyrdom of St Philotheus of Antioch (Pierpont Morgan M583). This Martyrdom is a reflection of a once flourishing cult which is attested in Egypt by rich textual and material evidence. This text enjoyed great popularity not only in Egypt, but also in other countries of the Christian East, since his dossier includes texts in Coptic, Georgian, Ethiopic, and Arabic. This work examines the literary and historical background of the Martyrdom of Philotheus and similar hagiographical texts. It also explores the goals and concerns of the authors and editors of Coptic martyr passions and their intended audience. I am arguing that these texts were produced in order to perform multiple functions: to justify and promote the cult of a particular saint, as an educational tool, and as an important structural element of liturgical celebrations in honour of the saint.
This is a German language article about the Foreign Cemetery (Gaikokujin Bochi) in Yokohama: its history, the circumstances of its origin, the study of the national, ethnic, and religious background of those who are in the ground. This is the part of a project (with archival research and field study parts) about this cemetery and the reconstruction of the history of life and death of foreigners in Japan in the late 19th and 20th centuries.
The present article examines a recent advisory opinion handed down by the Eurasian Economic Union Court. In the remarkably bold decision, the Court continued to push for the construction of a veritable EAEU internal market. It managed, within one advisory opinion, to further the coherence of its internal market law reasoning, expand on the principles of direct effect and primacy as well as the horizontal effect of fundamental freedoms in EAEU law, provide important definitions in EAEU law, strengthen the authority of the Commission and its decisions and emphasize the duty of loyal cooperation of Member States for the full effectiveness and successful implementation of EAEU law. As only criticism, one may deplore the EAEU Court’s lack of effort to start building a coherent jurisprudence by means of referring to its own case law.
The paper is devoted to the assessment of the prospects of implementing clean energy sources in Russia, where the current energy policy goal is to increase the role of renewable and clean energy sources. The research is based on data from the Krasnoyarsk Region as one of the largest territories but also as a representative model of Russia. The aim of the study is to identify where and which renewable energy source (solar, wind, hydro and nuclear) has the highest potential. The novelty of our research lies in its holistic nature: authors consider both geographical and technical potential for renewable energy sources development as well as prospective demand for such resources, while previous research is mostly focused on specific aspects of renewable energy development. We also consider the level of air pollution as an important factor for the development of renewable energy sources. The results of the study show that there is a strong potential for clean energy sources in the Krasnoyarsk Region. The resulting matrix identifies the potential of energy sources across all the municipal entities and also indicates whether the source of energy is primary or supplemental and where several sources may be implemented in cooperation.
The trend on electricity grids digitalization is gradually leading to the shift of busi-ness value towards more sustainable and efficient electricity services. Sustainability and efficiency are challenged by the increasing demand for electricity which is fol-lowed by a dramatic transformation of energy systems. While smart grids seem to be crucial in this process, there is a discrepancy in understanding the costs and benefits for the multiple actors involved. In addition, there are benefits of smart grids that cannot be measured directly in terms of money, such as higher energy system reliabil-ity or commitment to carbon reduction. Despite the rise of interest to the managerial aspects of smart grids implementation and development, many aspects remain out of the scope. This paper contributes to the research of smart grids by providing a con-ceptualized business model that would allow for value co-creation, delivery and cap-ture. A Russian energy sector perspective is primarily considered throughout the pa-per and the results are supported by evidence from interviews with of industrial ex-perts
The article analyzes post-Soviet economic policy in the light of the previous periods of the Russian economic history. The authors find a striking similarity between the measures proposed by modern Russian economic liberals – as well as their consequences – and the actions taken by the Russian authorities during much earlier periods. They explain these similarities with the fact that “Western” terms can mean something very different in the context of a non-Western culture, phenomena and institutions with the same names in different types of societies can differ fundamentally and perform different functions. Furthermore, “Westernization” can be a purely superficial process intended more for show than for substance. By applying the methodology of substantivism which stresses the fundamental differences between economies based on gifts (reciprocity), redistribution, and exchange (market), they argue that Russia’s economy differs significantly from that of the countries of Western Europe and, in the typological sense, is closer to such European countries as Bulgaria, Albania, Romania, and Serbia. For this reason, similar measures of economic policy applied in Western Europe and Russia bring different results.
The two major methodological approaches to quantify the health of populations and the burden of disease globally and regionally are (1) exposure-based methods and (2) expert opinion-based methods. In exposure-based methods the relationships between exposure and response to specific risk factors are defined through epidemiologic studies and the estimated attributable fractions are used to generate disease burden expressed quantitatively. The Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), a composite measure of morbidity and mortality associated with risk factors, is a widely used has become a universal index of disease burden. Detailed assessment of disease burden using this approach has been produced for at least six environmental risk factors and five occupational risk factors at the global level. Expert opinion-based methods rely on systematic literature reviews and surveys of experts across disciplines and geopolitical regions, who are asked to judge which fraction of the total burden of disease can be attributed to environmental a specific factors. This approach has been used to estimate the fraction of disease burden that can be attributed to the environment within 85 out of 102 major disease categories identified by World Health Organization (WHO). While global burden of disease quantifies the amount of disease due to specific causes, global Environmental Burden of Disease (EBD) estimates which fraction of the total burden of disease can be attributed to environmental risks. Together, these studies are based on both methods have revealed considerable disparities across regions and countries in the Environmental Burden of Disease (EBD), ranging from one-tenth to more than two-thirds of the total burden of disease that can be prevented through improving environmental quality. These differences are not only caused by actual dissimilarities in underlying environmental quality, but also by differences in calculation approaches and assumptions made.
The institutional aspect of the post-crisis banking regulation reform (Basel III) still remains unsettled, and as such undermines regulators’ efforts in shaping a seamless platform for international financial intermediation. On the other hand, lack of perspectives for global acceptance of the Basel III standards amid internationalization of banking activities is one of the main reasons of regulatory asymmetries that are difficult to handle at the national level. Under these circumstances, efforts of the governments and financial regulators are a central core of their policy in protecting banking sectors from systemic risks: It becomes imperative to bring together national mechanisms of banking regulation and to develop a regional system of regulatory institutions, as is evidenced by the single supervisory mechanism in the euro area countries.
Strengthening stress-resilience of the national banking sectors in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and expansion of banking activities to the Eurasian economic integration will require a conceptual framework of the EAEU banking regulation system. However, different regulatory regimes in the EAEU member states along with the lack of supranational regulatory institutions may slowdown the progress of the Eurasian mechanism of banking regulation. This means that operationalization of the EAEU regulatory mechanism will depend on whether the “mini-Basel III” format as a methodological hub of the regionalization and supranationalization will act as an enabler of resolution of the regulatory trilemma among the feasibility, relevance, and opportunities of supranationalization.
The institutional aspect of “mini-Basel III” is intrinsically linked to the integrity and consistency of the supranational authority for regulation of the EAEU financial markets being an authority documented in the Treaty on the EAEU; however, the costs of regulatory alignment may exceed the advantages of a single-institution regulatory architecture owing to the existent and tacit risks of heterogeneity of the national regulatory models. Stemming from the complex financial sector environment that falls short of valid and reliable institutional fundamentals, we propose alternative scenarios for the EAEU regulatory mechanism that could be sought for optimization of regulatory logistics and algorithms of regulatory alignment. Based on systematization of the benefits and weaknesses of each of the scenarios as well as on comparative analysis as to whether the proposed scenarios would ensure continuum of financial intermediation and financial stability, we found that currently there are no priority approaches to the design of a supranational institutional system in the EAEU. At the same time, identical structure of the national banking sectors together with the least expensive scenario approach could underpin the process of regulatory supranationalization; however, to secure integrity of the EAEU supranational authority, it should be complemented with an authority that would be responsible for coordination of the EAEU-wide regulatory alignment.
Integration processes in the EAEU is associated with the development of regional banking regulation that secures the effectiveness of the integration policy and, ultimately, financial stability. The integrity of the regional regulatory mechanism will largely depend on the effectiveness of convergence and supranationalization of the economic and institutional aspects of banking regulation of the EAEU member states, and at the same time – on their synchronization with Basel III. In this regard, a regional regulatory mechanism – mini Basel III – should become the central core of the EAEU regulatory and supervisory system, a tool for mitigation of systemic risks, and a mean for maintenance of stress resilience of the national banking sectors, as well as a channel of interaction with international banking regulation authorities.
However, currently EAEU banking regulation lacks a complete framework, mostly due to the shortage of strategic vision on regulatory convergence and poor understanding of the integration risks due to the absence of reliable tools for measuring imbalances in the banking sector. Besides, a number of issues of institutional supranationalization, including the delegation of the regulatory power from national to supranational level, still remain open.
In this work, the author continues the study of the regionalization of banking regulation and supervision in the EAEU focusing on systemic risks and how the mini-Basel III mechanism could become a key tool in minimization of the system-wide instability and crises.
Abstract: Civil and political activism is not a monolithic, “one-size-fits-all”
phenomenon. It is rather viewed as nationally unique, segmented political
attempts to engage different groups of citizens into a civil movement. The
paper explores the specifics and effectiveness of some types of Russian civil
and political activism—female, youth, unofficial, religious. Based on a political
marketing communications framework, the author argues that paradoxical
specifics of civil and political activism in Russia tend to avoid political slogans,
demands as well as content, adhering to the principle of neutrality which is the
main idea fn the contemporary Russian domestic policy. Despite the pronounced
demand for activism and changes, people are unready to fight and
revolt. Russians are not under a universal crisis of values and goals, which
usually spurs negative political activism. Various analytical surveys, reports and
official documents compiled by Russian official agencies and think-tanks in
2010–2018, support the author’s arguments.
Subjects: International Politics; International Relations; Political Behavior and
The study of economic growth and social inequality goes back to the works of S. Kuznets, A. Atkinson, P. Krugman, J. Stiglitz, T. Piketti, and B. Milanovic. Statistical analysis of social inequalities for a large set of countries, divided into seven clusters, was conducted for the period 2000–2016. The share of incomes of the 10th decile was used as a measure of inequality. The hypothesis of the positive impact of economic growth on the reduction of social inequality was tested. Stylized facts on an array of 106 countries for the period under review indicate a high degree of stability of the level of inequality in most groups, especially in the most developed countries, and in particular in the Anglo-Saxon ones. The distribution of key socioeconomic and even political indicators for clusters shows their strong relationship with the structure of cluster inequality. This makes it possible to significantly deepen the analysis, in particular the one concerning the stages of world development.
This book is based on the collection of articles centered around Russia and its policies. The articles are grouped under three parts. The first part contains articles on international relations, Russian foreign policy, and the situation in the world. The main themes they cover include Russian policy in Asia and the Eurasian integration — in which Moscow plays the most active role.
The second part looks at the theorization of Russia’s internal processes, issues concerning reforms to the communist system, its troubled transition from Communism, and analysis of the country’s current political regime. While elaborating on various reforms and transition from the communist system, the author has suggested certain alternatives concepts. Many of the articles analyze the shortcomings and inconsistencies of the modern Russian political system.
The third part is devoted to current issues in Russian politics, the democratization process, growing authoritarian tendencies, mass protests, and that evaluate the programs and policies of individual leaders. The book will be of interest to those specializing in Russian foreign and domestic policy as well as to all those interested in following the developments of this country, its role in the world, and the global situation in general.
The author argues that Russian–Chinese rapprochement is a fundamental feature of the current changing system of international relations. Apart from its own significance, it has become important because it stimulated and, in some cases, laid the foundation for many broader international processes: the creation of the multipolar world, the emergence of such international groups and organisations as BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), the coordination between Eurasian Economic Union and the Chinese initiative of Silk Road Economic Belt and others. Recently, all these processes led to the idea of Greater Eurasia or Eurasian partnership.
The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is relatively new regional integration block formed in the beginning of 2015 and now consists of five members (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia). The main document that establishes the basic principles of the functioning of the EAEU is the Agreement on EAEU that also covers the specifics of application of non-tariff measures (NTMs) on a very aggregate level. Overall NTMs adopted within EAEU are equally applied by the members of the Union. But still these measures may find their reflection in the national legislation of the member-states.
In order to analyze EAEU NTMs two sources of information were used: website of the Eurasian Economic Commission and TRAINS/WITS database. They were used as complements and allowed to find the most up to date versions of the legal acts that cover trade- and NTM-related aspects of EAEU functioning.
The Republic of Kazakhstan became one of the first members of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) that was formed on January 1, 2015. As a full member this country had to change its legislation in accordance with the EAEU legal acts. This article is devoted to non-tariff measures (NTMs) applied by the Republic of Kazakhstan in the context of the Eurasian economic integration. The importance of NTM research is defined by the fact that excessive regulatory policies may result in decreased growth rates of economy and overall loss of welfare. UNCTAD’s database (TRAINS/WITS database) was used in order to analyze national NTMs. In total 239 national actively applied NTMs were analyzed and systematized. Most of them are either import-related technical measures (Technical barriers to trade - TBT, Sanitary and phytosanitary measures - SPS measures) or export-related technical measures. Together they account for approximately 94.8% of applied national NTMs. In addition to the analysis of NTMs in terms of their type and type of affected product, author revealed the correspondence of Kazakhstan’s national NTMs to basic principles of the World Trade Organization (WTO): most-favored nation (MFN) and national treatment clause. Thus our research determined measures that represent a violation of MFN principle or national treatment clause. So these NTMs may be barriers to trade of the Republic of Kazakhstan with the other countries. Further research of ad valorem equivalents (AVE) of the measures is required in order to determine the economic effects of the non-tariff measures applied by the Republic of Kazakhstan.
As the digitalization becomes the key factor to raise the competitiveness of companies, as well as of the investment attractiveness of recipient countries, the Socialist Republic of Vietnam (SRV) may find it difficult to benefit from this process. The research question is why Vietnam, in spite of successful efforts to increase its investment attractiveness, may miss opportunities presented by the emerging digital business environment. The academic novelty of the paper account for the reveal of the repercussions generated by the global trend towards the digitalization of businesses for Vietnam. The approach to the research question is based upon general academic methods like observation, study of documents and comparison. The primary sources of the paper, a significant part of which is published in the Vietnamese language, include the statistics of Ministry of Finance of Vietnam, Ministry of planning and investment of Vietnam, interviews with the SRV’s government officials, as well as the UNCTAD and the World Bank reports. The principal findings of the study reveal that while Vietnam has succeeded in strengthening its attractiveness as an investment destination, the country still possesses insufficient resources to respond to the forthcoming global digitalization of businesses and incentivize companies to continue investing in the SRV. In this connection, a set of recommendations on how to rectify maters is presented by the authors.