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Sergey A. Karaganov
Deputy Dean (Academic Progress in Undergraduate and Master's Programmes)
Igor G. Kovalev
Deputy Dean (Finance and Administration)
Denis Anatolyevich Medvedev
Deputy Dean (Teaching and Learning and Postgraduate Programmes)
Deputy Dean for Admissions and Alumni Relations
The forecast covers the period up to 2035. It describes dynamic trends that will shape the future of the world during the nearest 20 years. The aim of this study is to foresee the challenges awaiting the world and the forthcoming opportunities which can be used in the interests of the Russian state, ensuring its role as an active participant in the formation of the future world order. The book presents a general analysis of the main trends of world development, its spiritual culture, ideology, politics, innovation, economy, social sphere and interna tional security, the problems of globalization and regionalism. The final section of the book presents strategic recommendations for Russia. Prospective readers of this book include staff members of government institutions and management bodies, research, expert and business communities. It also may be recommended for student scholars of international affairs.
While it is widely admitted that Afghanistan can contribute to connectivity in Eurasia, one may not also deny that Afghanistan’s regional role is dependent on regional conditions. This article takes Afghanistan’s security and geostrategic trends in Eurasia as the two major variables, defining conditions for Afghanistan’s regional role. They are reviewed and then synthesized as dependent and independent variable to form taxonomy of possible regional roles for Afghanistan.
My book examines the function and development of the cult of saints in Coptic Egypt. For this purpose I focus primarily on the material provided by the texts forming the Coptic hagiographical tradition of the early Christian martyr Philotheus of Antioch, and more specifically – the Martyrdom of St Philotheus of Antioch (Pierpont Morgan M583). This Martyrdom is a reflection of a once flourishing cult which is attested in Egypt by rich textual and material evidence. This text enjoyed great popularity not only in Egypt, but also in other countries of the Christian East, since his dossier includes texts in Coptic, Georgian, Ethiopic, and Arabic. This work examines the literary and historical background of the Martyrdom of Philotheus and similar hagiographical texts. It also explores the goals and concerns of the authors and editors of Coptic martyr passions and their intended audience. I am arguing that these texts were produced in order to perform multiple functions: to justify and promote the cult of a particular saint, as an educational tool, and as an important structural element of liturgical celebrations in honour of the saint.
This is a German language article about the Foreign Cemetery (Gaikokujin Bochi) in Yokohama: its history, the circumstances of its origin, the study of the national, ethnic, and religious background of those who are in the ground. This is the part of a project (with archival research and field study parts) about this cemetery and the reconstruction of the history of life and death of foreigners in Japan in the late 19th and 20th centuries.
The present article examines a recent advisory opinion handed down by the Eurasian Economic Union Court. In the remarkably bold decision, the Court continued to push for the construction of a veritable EAEU internal market. It managed, within one advisory opinion, to further the coherence of its internal market law reasoning, expand on the principles of direct effect and primacy as well as the horizontal effect of fundamental freedoms in EAEU law, provide important definitions in EAEU law, strengthen the authority of the Commission and its decisions and emphasize the duty of loyal cooperation of Member States for the full effectiveness and successful implementation of EAEU law. As only criticism, one may deplore the EAEU Court’s lack of effort to start building a coherent jurisprudence by means of referring to its own case law.
Is it possible for Russian energy companies to develop an effective business strategy based on the restrictions and rules of strategic documents of national scale?
Today Russian Energy Strategy sets the benchmarks for business. World experience confirms the possibility of adjusting corporate strategies for the benefit of society. Danish Energy Strategy prescribes a smooth transition to alternative energy sources and active implementation of smart energy resources. Experience of Norway in this area is also important. The third energy package of the EU defines the rules of the game, influencing business models, strategies and long-term deliveries of external counterparties.
The set of methods allows for the analysis of open sources and materials for the development of national and corporate strategies. Management technologies allow us to specify and quantify the characteristics of the national energy strategy, and to reflect on the priorities in the development strategies of companies. The conditions of the state policy and the parameters of the companies' strategies will have more points of contact and reduce the risk of deviation from the declared goals. Revision of the program document is possible due to organizational design and methodological support.
The paper is devoted to the assessment of the prospects of implementing clean energy sources in Russia, where the current energy policy goal is to increase the role of renewable and clean energy sources. The research is based on data from the Krasnoyarsk Region as one of the largest territories but also as a representative model of Russia. The aim of the study is to identify where and which renewable energy source (solar, wind, hydro and nuclear) has the highest potential. The novelty of our research lies in its holistic nature: authors consider both geographical and technical potential for renewable energy sources development as well as prospective demand for such resources, while previous research is mostly focused on specific aspects of renewable energy development. We also consider the level of air pollution as an important factor for the development of renewable energy sources. The results of the study show that there is a strong potential for clean energy sources in the Krasnoyarsk Region. The resulting matrix identifies the potential of energy sources across all the municipal entities and also indicates whether the source of energy is primary or supplemental and where several sources may be implemented in cooperation.
The trend on electricity grids digitalization is gradually leading to the shift of busi-ness value towards more sustainable and efficient electricity services. Sustainability and efficiency are challenged by the increasing demand for electricity which is fol-lowed by a dramatic transformation of energy systems. While smart grids seem to be crucial in this process, there is a discrepancy in understanding the costs and benefits for the multiple actors involved. In addition, there are benefits of smart grids that cannot be measured directly in terms of money, such as higher energy system reliabil-ity or commitment to carbon reduction. Despite the rise of interest to the managerial aspects of smart grids implementation and development, many aspects remain out of the scope. This paper contributes to the research of smart grids by providing a con-ceptualized business model that would allow for value co-creation, delivery and cap-ture. A Russian energy sector perspective is primarily considered throughout the pa-per and the results are supported by evidence from interviews with of industrial ex-perts
The electric energy industry plays a crucial role in the technological support of digitalization, and this leads to an increase in the requirements for its development. Leading developed countries are currently under energy transition and are creating innovative, intelligent energy systems (IES) of open type, which include active consumers, distributed generation mechanisms and the introduction of renewable energy sources. One can observe a deep structural transformation, expansion of the range of participants and creation of new value chains. The development of digitalization and IES provides with new opportunities for sustainable development of the economy and society. This stage facilitates the creation of new tasks for the investment climate in the power industry, so the development of an institutionalsystem is justified.
The article analyzes post-Soviet economic policy in the light of the previous periods of the Russian economic history. The authors find a striking similarity between the measures proposed by modern Russian economic liberals – as well as their consequences – and the actions taken by the Russian authorities during much earlier periods. They explain these similarities with the fact that “Western” terms can mean something very different in the context of a non-Western culture, phenomena and institutions with the same names in different types of societies can differ fundamentally and perform different functions. Furthermore, “Westernization” can be a purely superficial process intended more for show than for substance. By applying the methodology of substantivism which stresses the fundamental differences between economies based on gifts (reciprocity), redistribution, and exchange (market), they argue that Russia’s economy differs significantly from that of the countries of Western Europe and, in the typological sense, is closer to such European countries as Bulgaria, Albania, Romania, and Serbia. For this reason, similar measures of economic policy applied in Western Europe and Russia bring different results.
The two major methodological approaches to quantify the health of populations and the burden of disease globally and regionally are (1) exposure-based methods and (2) expert opinion-based methods. In exposure-based methods the relationships between exposure and response to specific risk factors are defined through epidemiologic studies and the estimated attributable fractions are used to generate disease burden expressed quantitatively. The Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), a composite measure of morbidity and mortality associated with risk factors, is a widely used has become a universal index of disease burden. Detailed assessment of disease burden using this approach has been produced for at least six environmental risk factors and five occupational risk factors at the global level. Expert opinion-based methods rely on systematic literature reviews and surveys of experts across disciplines and geopolitical regions, who are asked to judge which fraction of the total burden of disease can be attributed to environmental a specific factors. This approach has been used to estimate the fraction of disease burden that can be attributed to the environment within 85 out of 102 major disease categories identified by World Health Organization (WHO). While global burden of disease quantifies the amount of disease due to specific causes, global Environmental Burden of Disease (EBD) estimates which fraction of the total burden of disease can be attributed to environmental risks. Together, these studies are based on both methods have revealed considerable disparities across regions and countries in the Environmental Burden of Disease (EBD), ranging from one-tenth to more than two-thirds of the total burden of disease that can be prevented through improving environmental quality. These differences are not only caused by actual dissimilarities in underlying environmental quality, but also by differences in calculation approaches and assumptions made.
The article highlights the results of field research conducted in Tanzania in August-September 2018, focused on historical memory about Arab slave trade in East Africa and Indian Ocean in the 19-th century and its influence on modern-day interethnic relations in the country.
The Kyrgyz Republic became the fifth member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) on August 12, 2015. In order to become a “full” member this country at a certain degree had to harmonize and change its legislation in accordance with the basic provisions of the Union legal acts.
The article determines and systematizes concordance of national technical regulations and EAEU (Customs Union) technical regulations. The research focuses on non-tariff measures (NTMs) applied by the Kyrgyz Republic in light of the Eurasian economic integration.
UNCTAD’s database (TRAINS/WITS database) was used in order to analyze national NTMs. In total 218 actively applied NTMs were analyzed. Most of them are import-related technical measures (Sanitary and phytosanitary measures – SPS, and Technical barriers to trade - TBT) and export-related (technical and licensing/authorization) measures. In addition to composition of the Kyrgyz national NTMs, author revealed their correspondence to main principles of the World Trade Organization (WTO): most-favored nation and national treatment clause.
Thus our research revealed that measures which are viewed as barriers may not only hinder the trade of the Kyrgyz Republic with the third countries, but also may slow down the integration processes within the EAEU. The research on this matter can be further developed.
Purpose: The regional economy depends on the structure of industrial production which has been established earlier. This study makes it possible to determine the hi-tech spheres in which the entrepreneurship is going to develop more successfully. The purpose of the investigation is to determine the technological proximity of the industrial production branches with the high-tech economy sector for further defining the egress from the previous development path.
Methodology: In order to determine possible egress of the region from the previous development trajectory there has been proposed a method of proximity evaluation between the high-tech sector and the existing structure of industrial production in the region. The characteristics of high technologies relatedness to other industry branches in the Russian regions have been defined.
Findings: For the Russian regions it was determined that less than 30% of sub-branches can be considered as connected with the high technology sector - 25%. The regions having the comparative advantages in the high-tech types of industry and sectors related thereto have been revealed. We have demonstrated that individual regions can progress through investment into interregional connections and entrepreneurship domestic innovations.
Research/practical implications: Considered as the investigatory contribution of the paper can be the alternative proposed to the comparative advantage index in the form of a localization coefficient to be used at evaluation of the technological proximity of industrial branches. The results of this study can be of benefit to representatives of the regional managerial bodies in the course of the economic policy development in the sphere of entrepreneurship.
Originality/value: Proposed in the article is a method for evaluation of technological proximity of industry branches which differs from the traditional use of the localization coefficient. The calculated proximity indexes make it possible to determine such high-tech industries to the development of which there are the necessary prerequisites in the region, i.e. the technologically similar industrial production is under development.
The institutional aspect of the post-crisis banking regulation reform (Basel III) still remains unsettled, and as such undermines regulators’ efforts in shaping a seamless platform for international financial intermediation. On the other hand, lack of perspectives for global acceptance of the Basel III standards amid internationalization of banking activities is one of the main reasons of regulatory asymmetries that are difficult to handle at the national level. Under these circumstances, efforts of the governments and financial regulators are a central core of their policy in protecting banking sectors from systemic risks: It becomes imperative to bring together national mechanisms of banking regulation and to develop a regional system of regulatory institutions, as is evidenced by the single supervisory mechanism in the euro area countries.
Strengthening stress-resilience of the national banking sectors in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and expansion of banking activities to the Eurasian economic integration will require a conceptual framework of the EAEU banking regulation system. However, different regulatory regimes in the EAEU member states along with the lack of supranational regulatory institutions may slowdown the progress of the Eurasian mechanism of banking regulation. This means that operationalization of the EAEU regulatory mechanism will depend on whether the “mini-Basel III” format as a methodological hub of the regionalization and supranationalization will act as an enabler of resolution of the regulatory trilemma among the feasibility, relevance, and opportunities of supranationalization.
The institutional aspect of “mini-Basel III” is intrinsically linked to the integrity and consistency of the supranational authority for regulation of the EAEU financial markets being an authority documented in the Treaty on the EAEU; however, the costs of regulatory alignment may exceed the advantages of a single-institution regulatory architecture owing to the existent and tacit risks of heterogeneity of the national regulatory models. Stemming from the complex financial sector environment that falls short of valid and reliable institutional fundamentals, we propose alternative scenarios for the EAEU regulatory mechanism that could be sought for optimization of regulatory logistics and algorithms of regulatory alignment. Based on systematization of the benefits and weaknesses of each of the scenarios as well as on comparative analysis as to whether the proposed scenarios would ensure continuum of financial intermediation and financial stability, we found that currently there are no priority approaches to the design of a supranational institutional system in the EAEU. At the same time, identical structure of the national banking sectors together with the least expensive scenario approach could underpin the process of regulatory supranationalization; however, to secure integrity of the EAEU supranational authority, it should be complemented with an authority that would be responsible for coordination of the EAEU-wide regulatory alignment.
Integration processes in the EAEU is associated with the development of regional banking regulation that secures the effectiveness of the integration policy and, ultimately, financial stability. The integrity of the regional regulatory mechanism will largely depend on the effectiveness of convergence and supranationalization of the economic and institutional aspects of banking regulation of the EAEU member states, and at the same time – on their synchronization with Basel III. In this regard, a regional regulatory mechanism – mini Basel III – should become the central core of the EAEU regulatory and supervisory system, a tool for mitigation of systemic risks, and a mean for maintenance of stress resilience of the national banking sectors, as well as a channel of interaction with international banking regulation authorities.
However, currently EAEU banking regulation lacks a complete framework, mostly due to the shortage of strategic vision on regulatory convergence and poor understanding of the integration risks due to the absence of reliable tools for measuring imbalances in the banking sector. Besides, a number of issues of institutional supranationalization, including the delegation of the regulatory power from national to supranational level, still remain open.
In this work, the author continues the study of the regionalization of banking regulation and supervision in the EAEU focusing on systemic risks and how the mini-Basel III mechanism could become a key tool in minimization of the system-wide instability and crises.
Abstract: Civil and political activism is not a monolithic, “one-size-fits-all”
phenomenon. It is rather viewed as nationally unique, segmented political
attempts to engage different groups of citizens into a civil movement. The
paper explores the specifics and effectiveness of some types of Russian civil
and political activism—female, youth, unofficial, religious. Based on a political
marketing communications framework, the author argues that paradoxical
specifics of civil and political activism in Russia tend to avoid political slogans,
demands as well as content, adhering to the principle of neutrality which is the
main idea fn the contemporary Russian domestic policy. Despite the pronounced
demand for activism and changes, people are unready to fight and
revolt. Russians are not under a universal crisis of values and goals, which
usually spurs negative political activism. Various analytical surveys, reports and
official documents compiled by Russian official agencies and think-tanks in
2010–2018, support the author’s arguments.
Subjects: International Politics; International Relations; Political Behavior and