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At the beginning of his speech, the expert noted that the period of five years was not chosen by chance. In 2015, a political process was launched aimed at uniting two parts of Libya. Over the past 5 years, the situation has changed a lot, the parties found themselves at a dead-end, which became a catalyst for the intervention of European countries. Dr. Kamran Gasanov during his speech analyzed intervention policies of Italy, France, Germany, and Great Britain – the largest economies and the strongest military powers in Europe. The expert doubted Libya’s potential to unite since there is no unity among European politicians.
Dr. Gasanov has consistently analyzed each country, starting with Italy, which has relied on the government of national unity since the beginning of the political process. In November 2018, a conference of warring groups was held in Palermo. Italy stated that it supports the Libyan people, and not individuals representing the conflict sides. For doing so Italy started being perceived as an unreliable partner by the actors involved in the conflict.
The policy of Paris is opposite to the Italian approach – France regularly supported Khalifa Haftar. Back in 2017, a conference was held with the participation of Haftar and Saraj. President Macron pledged a truce, but the fighting did not stop. Since April 2019, France’s position, like Italy’s, began to weaken.
London’s position was twofold: Great Britain, like Italy, sought a peaceful settlement but did not mind the ongoing hostilities. At the same time, as the expert notes, Britain's position was detached from the actual situation.
Germany adhered to neutrality and was rather passive: the peak of activity was the Berlin Conference in 2019. The conference confirmed the arms embargo. However, the intervention of Germany turned out to be an important step, since at that time Turkey and the countries of the Persian Gulf were actively operating in Libya.
Third powers, especially Russia, greatly influenced Europe. Turkey almost completely subjugated the government of national accord and provided decisive support to Tripoli. The Europeans then quickly turned their backs on Haftar.
Dr. Gasanov noted that analyzing the absence or presence of the European Union in Libya is a very complex topic, which also considers the commonality of countries during the Arab Spring and the participation of other countries such as Russia and Turkey.