Iran Nuclear Deal” as a Factor of Stability and Security in the Middle East

On December 7, 2021 the School of International Regional Studies of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs, HSE University within the framework of the permanent online seminars «Contemporary Area Studies», organized a meeting with Farhad Ibragimov, the expert of Valdai International Discussion Club, Anton Baklanov, researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Alexander Kuznetsov, visiting lecturer at the School of International Regional Studies, Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs, HSE University.

 The topic of the discussion was: «“Iran Nuclear Deal” as a Factor of Stability and Security in the Middle East».

The seminar was moderated by Elmira Imamkulieva – Senior Lecturer, School of International Regional Studies, Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs, HSE University.

The first speaker – Farhad Ibragimov – noted the importance of the US return to the "nuclear deal" and the related Iranian expectations of guarantees from Washington. The main question that arises now - what will happen to Iran's nuclear program? Iran's participation in the "nuclear deal" is an attempt to secure itself against US intervention, while expanding opportunities for cooperation with the West. The main problem is the US withdrawal from the deal and the imposition of new conditions by them. Negotiations continue to nowadays, with Iran demanding a guarantee that the United States will not withdraw from the deal.

Alexander Kuznetsov in his part of the report marked the success of the negotiations in 2015, the agreements on which failed with the election of Donald Trump in the United States. After the change of power, a course on Iran’s isolation was taken and in May 2018 the deal was withdrawn. During the current negotiations on the "nuclear deal" the United States, as the speaker noted, themselves do not understand what to demand from Iran. Their conditions are mainly related to the limitation of missile weapons and drones, and that has no connection to the nuclear program. Iran's calculations are connected to the thought that the United States has weakened and in the future will withdraw its actions from the Middle East. At the same time, Iran is actively trying to get out of isolation and establish good relations with the European Union, taking in considerations personal national and foreign policy interests.

The last speaker, Anton Baklanov, emphasized Iran's aspirations to obtain technologies for creating nuclear weapons, for which the country is actively making contact with the United States and European powers. However, as the speaker noted, it is not the bomb itself that is important in nuclear weapons, but the means of its delivery. Therefore, limiting the production of missiles in Iran, which the United States insists on, may become a soft power of Iran’s limitation.