Transformation of Turkey's Foreign Policy towards the MENA countries (2008-2022)

On October 19, 2022, the School of Regional Studies of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs, HSE University within the framework of the permanent online seminars «Contemporary Area Studies», with the support of the Russian Middle East Association, organized the 57th online seminar with an orientalist and journalist, adviser to the General Director of IIA «Russia Today», author and presenter of the program «Turn to the East» on Sputnik radio Tural Kerimov.

Tural Kerimov began his speech with an appeal to history, noting that contemporary conflicts in the Middle East date back to the period of the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, the consequences of which largely determined the current contradictions. The speaker outlined various stages of Turkey's policy towards the countries of the region such as its non-participation in Middle Eastern affairs in the interwar period during the “de-Arabization” of society under Atatürk, and then Ankara's first initiatives in the region after World War II, such as recognition of Israel or membership in the Baghdad Pact. A kind of “return of Turkey to the Middle East”, according to T. Kerimov, began in the late 1970s – early 1980s, when after the Yom Kippur War and the Turkish operation in Northern Cyprus, as well as Operation Desert Storm in 1991, Turkey was increasingly involved in regional politics, primarily, to ensure their national security.

At the same time, the speaker notes, the activation of Turkish policy in the Middle East has especially increased at the beginning of the XXI century with the coming to power of the Justice and Development Party of R. T. Erdogan. T. Kerimov calls “neo-Ottomanism” one of its main approaches, which he defines as Turkey's desire to show the countries of the region that their existing problems can be solved through active cooperation with Ankara. This leads to the development of Turkey's ties with various states of the Middle East, from the monarchies of the Persian Gulf to the Maghreb. T. Kerimov highlights 2006-2012 as the peak of the renaissance of Turkey's Middle East policy, after which, due to the contradictory consequences of the Arab Spring, when Ankara supported the movements of political Islam, in particular, the Muslim Brotherhood, difficulties in cooperation with a number of states are observed.

After a general overview of Turkey's participation in regional politics, the speaker turned to the consideration of Ankara's ties with particular states of the Middle East. He spoke about the cooperation between Turkey and Syria as an example of mutually beneficial cooperation in the 2000s, which included trade and economic cooperation and the mediating role of R. T. Erdogan between Syria and Israel. However, after the Arab Spring, Turkey dramatically changed its attitude towards the government of B. Assad and actively supported the forces opposing him in the civil war and only recently can we talk about attempts to establish contacts between Ankara and Damascus. The Turkish-Israeli relations were formed in a similar way, initially representing close military and economic cooperation, but aggravated, according to T. Kerimov, in particular due to the personal hostility of the Turkish president and former Israeli Prime Minister B. Netanyahu. This led to Israel's rapprochement with Greece and Cyprus, but under the current Bennett-Lapid government, steps can also be seen to restore cooperation.

The speaker then focused on the transformation of Turkey's relations with Egypt. During Morsi’s government, after the Muslim Brotherhood came to power, cooperation between the two countries was strengthened, but with the beginning of the presidency of A. F. el-Sisi, the interaction between Cairo and Ankara actually stopped, which was also determined by the support of Turkey and Egypt for different sides of the Libyan conflict and the rapprochement of Cairo with Nicosia and Athens. But in recent years, due to the beginning of the gas reserves development in the Eastern Mediterranean and the need for technical cooperation, as well as the end of the active phase of the civil war in Libya, Turkey has sought to improve relations with Egypt. Similarly, there is the current transition to Ankara's cooperation with the monarchies of the Persian Gulf. If earlier, as T. Kerimov noted, Qatar was Turkey's main partner in the region, and relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE were complicated, due to their perception of Turkey's support for the Muslim Brotherhood as a security threat, now, in the new geopolitical situation, contacts of their authorities are becoming more frequent, Riyadh cancels the boycott of Turkish goods. At the same time, Turkish-Iranian relations still remain in the paradigm of “sworn competitors”: with certain economic ties, Ankara and Tehran always see each other on different sides of various conflicts.

At the end of the report, Tural Kerimov answered the questions of the participants of the discussion about the future of Turkish-Egyptian relations in the context of the conflict in Libya, the impact of the constitutional changes of 2017 on the Turkish foreign policy, the solution of the problem of Northern Cyprus and the oil factor in Turkish-Iraqi relations.

Support to the project from the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at HSE University is gratefully acknowledged.

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* Организация «Братья-мусульмане» признана террористической, её деятельность на территории РФ запрещена.