Northeast Asia and Prospects for the “Asian Century”

On December 2, 2022, School of Regional Studies Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs, HSE University held the session “Northeast Asia and Prospects for the “Asian Century” within the framework of the 4th International Conference “The world majority in the contemporary international realities: from fragmentation to new institutionalization”.

Moderator Dr. Sergey Luzyanin (Professor, School of Regional Studies, Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs, HSE University) outlined the general issues of the section: the place and role of the Northeast Asian region in the context of the growing crisis in the West-East system, highlighting key conflict points (Taiwan Strait, Korean Peninsula, etc.) as well as key bilateral tracks in the current Russian-Japanese, Russian-North Korean and South Korean relations.

Dr. Vasily Kashin (Candidate of Sciences (PhD), a Director of the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies (CCEIS), HSE University) in “Northeast Asia Security Issues (Taiwan Strait, Korean Peninsula” analysed the Taiwan situation, linking it to regional security in Northeast Asia, noting that Taiwan is of particular importance, starting with the Hong Kong protests of 2019-2020 and the escalation of the prospects of reunification of the PRC and the island after the famous visits of US senators and congressmen to Taipei in 2022. The speaker drew particular attention to the local Taiwanese elections, which were marked by the victory of the Kuomintang party, and to the possibility of Japan's involvement in the Taiwan crisis, including the acceleration of Taiwan's military reforms.  Dr. Kashin outlined a direct link/interdependence between the escalation of the Ukrainian and Taiwanese crises in the context of US policy, which, in his view, could provide a higher level of support to the island that would be much higher than the aid provided to Ukraine.

Dr. Dmitry Streltsov (Doctor of Sciences, Professor, Head of Department of Oriental Studies, MGIMO University) in “Russia and Japan in Northeast Asia: Bilateral and Regional Dimensions” highlighted Russia-Japan relations considering the situation in Northeast Asia and in the context of the Ukraine crisis, including its long-term implications. The speaker noted that countries and territories in the region - Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and ASEAN states – stand out as 'trading nations' that depend on foreign economic ties and maritime communications, and free trade regimes. They are not interested in changing the balance of power, including China's increasing role. Dr. Streltsov stressed that the situation around Ukraine's nuclear facilities resonates strongly in Japan, while the Ukrainian crisis creates a negative backdrop for Russia and leads to a freezing of political and economic relations and economic sanctions. It was noted that the winding down of Sakhalin oil and gas projects was hitting Japan hard.

Dr. Vera Vishnyakova (Candidate of Sciences (PhD), Advisor of the Academic Supervisor of HSE University, Associate Professor of School of International Regional Studies, HSE University) spoke on “South Korea and Regional Security Issues”, analysing the specifics of Korea's digital transformation in the context of the technological revolution 4.0. Dr. Vishnyakova paid special attention to the problem of global computerization in South Korean formats, processing of large volumes (including using Korean chips) of information, creation of digital communication platforms (Samsung, LG, Hyundai). It was noted that the digital transformation allowed Hyundai to increase productivity and profits by 17.8%.

Dr. Alexander Zheleznyakov (Doctor of Sciences, Head of Institute of Sociology of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology, Russian Academy of Sciences) made a presentation on “Mongolia as a key link in the region's hydrocarbon and transport strategy”, in which he presented the main approaches to Mongolia's place and role in Northeast Asia, its civilisational characterisation as the core of the “Mongolian world”, interaction with strategic partners (Russia, China, the US – “Third neighbour”), etc. Dr. Zheleznyakov noted that the “Mongolian world” loses its integrity immediately beyond the state border, that historically Mongolia has been a buffer located between the Russian “hammer” and the Chinese “anvil”, but now interaction with the two giants is of strategic value for Mongolia (Power of Siberia 2 / Union East transport corridors). 

Dr. Galina Nikiporets-Takigawa (Doctor of Sciences, Professor of the School of International Regional Studies, HSE University) in “Russia-Japan Relations: Normalisation Problems and Perspectives”, presented a contemporary cross-section of Japanese attitudes, including Japan's unprecedented involvement in the West's anti-Russian sanctions policy. Dr. Nikiporets-Takigawa noted that 99% of the Japanese people have a negative attitude towards Russia, that Japanese businesses are gradually withdrawing from Russian markets, etc. However, the expert believes that the prospect of normalizing relations, which are vitally important for Japan, remains. Many corporations continue to operate, although Japanese personnel have withdrawn (normalisation to pragmatic cooperation between the countries in the trade and economic sphere), elements of “soft power” (study grants, visas, tourism) remain, etc.

Uliana Kukina (PhD student, Department of Israel and Jewish Communities, Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences) spoke on “Republic of Korea: From Persian Gulf Uncertainty to Strengthening Bilateral Relations with the State of Israel”, highlighting the problems of Korea's interaction with Saudi Arabia and other Persian monarchies in the hydrocarbon sphere as well as with Syria and Iran. Since the imposition of sanctions on Iran in 2018, as Kukina stressed, all South Korea's assets ($6 billion) have been frozen for shipments of Iranian oil. Relations between the ROK and Iran, the speaker noted, are currently experiencing some crisis, while international exchanges with Iran continue. Israel and South Korea signed free trade agreements in 2021 and major space firms began cooperation in the same year, including the ROK-Israel strategic cooperation programme launched in 2022.

Dr. Evgeny Buchnev (Head of educational programmes for the non-financial module CB JSC Modulbank) in his presentation “Prospects for Digital Cooperation between Russia and the Republic of Korea in Cyber Security Strategies” the expert stressed that until February 2022, the development of Russian-Korean digital cooperation was mainly based on the digital economy. As the expert stressed, before February 2022, the development of Russian-Korean digital cooperation was mainly based on the digital economy; after the launch of the ETS, the cooperation vector shifted to medicine, finance, energy and distribution, while maintaining theoretical opportunities for cooperation in the Big Data and artificial intelligence industries.

Following the presentations, moderator Dr. Sergey Luzyanin led a discussion session in which keynote speakers and other panellists presented various assessments and approaches to security issues in Northeast Asia, the possibility or impossibility of the Taiwan and Korean conflicts escalating into full-scale armed crises, and the role of Russia, China and the United States in the region. The participants developed and clarified the positions of the key speakers during the discussion of the presentations. Dr. Sergey Luzyanin summarised the section by thanking all the participants.