Experts of the CIA comment on the coup in Niger

On July 26, 2023, a military coup took place in Niger, overthrowing President Mohamed Bazoum and forming the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland, headed by Abdourahamane Tchiani. A month later, French President Emmanuel Macron announced the withdrawal of the French military from Niger. In their media comments, experts of the Center for African Studies of the HSE University analyze the events in Niger.

Expert Vsevolod Sviridov, said in his comment for TASS News Agency that in recent years, African countries have gained more and more sovereignty, started to provide security on their own, and former metropolitan countries reduce their involvement in conflict resolution in Africa. In an article for Izvestia, another expert, Kirill Smirnov, mentioned that France “had lost” Niger long before the coup. European countries, primarily France, lost the tools of economic and political influence on Niger when the country got a Chinese alternative to the post-colonial model of relations, under which “low royalties with low production costs and de facto termless licenses left the country with only a symbolic share of income from the export of raw materials strategic for Europe”. 

Andrey Maslov, Director of the Center, and expert Vsevolod Sviridov noted in an article for RT that Niger is an important player in the uranium market, and the new leadership's political decision to stop exporting this strategic raw material to France will aggravate the European country's energy difficulties.

When Macron first came to power, he stated the need for a new approach in relations with Africa, but it was not possible to develop one. In an interview with Izvestia, expert Nikita Panin said that the current decision to withdraw from Niger is a natural process:

“The relations between Niger and France is actually a game of raising the stakes. And at some point, given the complete blockade of the French embassy, given the French diplomacy’s failure to achieve diplomatic isolation of Niger, raising the stakes further proved pointless for France's strategy”.

Both experts agree that although the events in Niger are a blow to Paris' interests, which negatively affects France's practical capabilities in the region, it does not mean a complete paradigm shift in French-West African relations.

“France still has strong positions in other countries of the region - in Cameroon, in Côte d'Ivoire, in Benin,” Mr. Sviridov reminded. - In addition, we do not yet know how exactly France will withdraw from Niger. Perhaps it will try to stay. Perhaps it will arrange artificial delays. When France was withdrawing from Mali, virtually the entire contingent was transferred to Niger. Niger became the main base for French troops. And here comes the question: “where will they go from Niger? It could be other countries in the region traditionally friendly to France. It is important to understand who will fill this power vacuum.”

On September 16, 2023, the three countries’ leaders (Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso) signed a charter to create a defensive “Alliance of Sahel States.” The reasons for this move were discussed by Director Andrey Maslov, in a commentary for Business FM radio:

“We are dealing here with transitional governments that seek to stabilize the situation in their homelands. <...> Their unification, on the one hand, of course, is connected with common threats, because they fear an invasion by France, some provocations, some forceful actions on the part of ECOWAS - this is the community of West African states. And at the same time they have a common threat, the Saharan jihadists. But this is more of a symbolic gesture to cool down the supporters of forceful intervention in the situation inside these countries.”

At the same time, despite ECOWAS statements, intervention in Niger is unlikely, said Vsevolod Sviridov on Sputnik radio.

“We see the ECOWAS statement that they are preparing an intervention. We should look at this as if they have not prepared this intervention yet, despite the fact that they have already declared an ultimatum. <...> just a couple of days ago, the Senegalese media, reported that Senegal was just preparing to move troops to the ECOWAS rear base in Benin <...> That seems to be a real argument. They are putting pressure on Niger, they are trying to negotiate, they are trying to make the regime that came to power start the process of transferring power to a democratic administration, to schedule elections, to designate a framework for the transition to civilian power.”

As Andrey Maslov clarified in an interview with RT, Nigeria, Algeria and Chad didn’t approve of the military intervention in Niger. The final decision largely depends on Nigeria, as “its leader heads ECOWAS, so the country has a significant armed force, and, finally, the longest border with the populated part of Niger.”

“If intervention does occur, it will have devastating consequences for the entire region,” Sviridov concluded.