On November 21, Zhang Yunlin, Leading Researcher of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Alan Cafruny, Professor of Hamilton College (US), and Vasily Kashin, Head of the Sector of International Military-Political and Military-Economic Problems at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies (CCEIS), HSE, has given their lectures.
Zhang Yunlin has given a lecture on "World Trade after the Free Trade Era", in which he has spoken about the key changes that have taken place in the global markets. The speaker talked about the history of international trade, what changes the pandemic has brought to world trade and shared his thoughts on future trends.
The main changes that the pandemic has brought to the global economy, according to the speaker, are the rupture of international supply chains and the actions of states to control trade and investments for national security.
As for the future, according to Mr. Zhang, globalization is closely related to liberalization, and although some believe that its time has come to an end, this process continues, and it is necessary to learn how to manage it.
In the second part of the program, Alan Cafruny and Vasily Kashin have discussed the sanctions policy, its scope, tools, and actors. According to Alan Cafruny, two main factors that will determine the future of sanctions are the growing instability of the United States after the presidential elections and the stability of the dollar, so that even Russia, China, and the EU would find it difficult to resist.
As for the new "cold war" between China and the United States, the economic warfare, according to Vasiliy Kashin, will play a much greater role than it has been previously in the US – USSR relations.
The USSR was largely self-sufficient and traded mainly in raw materials with the allies, and there was no sufficient consumer market for trading in foreign goods. And although the sanctions were present, in fact, permanently, they were not a guarantee of the "victory" of the United States. The current sanctions, trade disputes, and trade pressure on China have merged into one mechanism of influence. The goal is to undermine China's industrial base and innovation potential, as well as long-term political and economic destabilization of China.
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